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TCJ Research National: Mitt Romney- 50%, Barack Obama- 47%

November 2, 2012

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TCJ Research National Tracking

Mitt Romney- 50% (-1)
Barack Obama- 47% (=)

10/31-11/1
1500 likely voters, M.O.E. 3%.
35% Democrats, 33% Republican, 32% Unaffiliated

All ID Democrats Republicans Independents
Romney 50.4 9.6 91 53.1
Obama 47.4 87.7 7.5 44.6
Undecided 2.2 2.7 1.5 2.3
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2 Comments
  1. I see this is a +2 Democrat Electorate, what are your thoughts on the Gallop prediction of an R+1 Electorate? I feel as long as it is D+1-D+4 Electorate then Mitt Romney will win the Popular Vote by 2% or more

    • TCJ Research permalink

      Gallup certainly has loads more experience in the field than we do (this our first national campaign to poll, after all), so their R+1 projection could very well come to fruition. Having said that, our polling numbers and our observations making us more comfortable projecting a D+2. If Gallup is right in the end, Romney will win by a much, much wider margin than most expect.

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