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TCJ Research OHIO: Mitt Romney- 50%, Barack Obama- 47% 10/19-10/21

October 23, 2012

TCJ Research Ohio

Mitt Romney- 50%
Barack Obama- 47%

10/19-10/21
1000 LV, 3% M.O.E.

36% Republican, 36% Democrat, 28% Unaffiliated/Other

49.66 11.2 87 51.1
46.976 85.8 8.6 46.4
3.364 3 4.4 2.5
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9 Comments
  1. Lots of people are questioning your credibility with this poll result because it’s the only one showing Romney with a lead in Ohio. They say you are partisan. How do you respond to your critics? Thank you.

    • TCJ Research permalink

      Thanks for the comment. To be clear, we are privately funded by Republican donors and Republican groups. Having said that, the results of our polls are completely legitimate and aren’t influenced by our partisan nature.

      The explanation as to why we’re the only group showing Romney leading is simple: Our likely voter model falls somewhere between the party ID of the 2008 and 2004 elections. That is to say, it shows turnout among Republicans and Democrats running evenly (It was D+8 in ’08, R+4 in ’04). Almost all of the polls out now, with the notable exception being Rasmussen, show Democrats running almost evenly with their turnout in 2008. If that’s the assumption you want to make about this election, then our poll would show Obama leading when adjustments are made to the composition of the electorate. I hope that explains our position a bit more. Please feel free to ask if you have any more questions!

  2. i think that your polls seem most accurate but can you tell me was your polls accurate in prior elections

    • TCJ Research permalink

      Thanks for stopping by. We’re currently putting together a chart comparing our performance to the performance of other pollsters during the 2010 midterm elections. Our House and Gubernatorial polls were spot on, though we acknowledge unacceptably wide margins off error in some of our senate polling.

  3. have you contacted rcp and ask them to include your polls? your polls may be done by right leaning organization but so is ppp and they are included

  4. can i ask a question can you say why you dont do cross tabs? what do you expect the national party breakdown to be on election day? Sorry if I am bothering you just want best information and i am having trouble with other polls

    • TCJ Research permalink

      You’re no bother to us, that’s why we’re hear! We haven’t done a ton of national polling, so it’s really hard to say. Based on the polling we have done, our best estimate is somewhere between D+3 and D+1, with an increase in Unaffiliated/Independent voters. This will look something like the 35/33/32 DRI breakdown that our first national tracker showed. Gallup’s estimation of an R+1 electorate is interesting, though, considering the magnitude of the polling that they have to look through.

      At this point in time, we don’t post the full cross tabs. We hope to start a subscription-based membership, similarly to what Rasmussen has done, in the near future.

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